Structural Dynamics is a unique way of looking at any facet of human activity.  Every event can be understood more deeply through Structural Dynamics.  For example, let's consider the recent article about the growing use of mass transit appearing in USAToday. Mass transit has many advocates and many critics.  Its fans see buses and light rail as obvious ways to reduce congestion and pollution while saving energy.  Its detractors view mass transit as an inconvenient and unpleasant mode of transportation run by lazy, corrupt bureaucrats.  Regardless of one’s view, new figures showing that 10 billion people rode the bus or used the subway in the US in 2006, up 2.9% from the year before.  These systems could be on the verge of tremendous growth, with profound consequences for the transportation industry in the United States.

The article discussed a number of drivers contributing to the growth of mass transit including the price of  gasoline, road congestion, improved transit service, reduced stress and opportunities to meet people. 

---

On the other hand, increased ridership is straining equipment that is already old in many instances, increasing overcrowded conditions, and frustrating many riders.

So, just like most other domains of life, there are no certainties about how the mass transit story will unfold, but here are a few possibilities:

1)     No Friction!  In this scenario, everything is coming up roses for mass transit.  Gasoline prices skyrocket after China establishes a contract to buy all of Iran’s crude.   Metropolitan districts all over the country jump start investment in mass transit with a goal of bringing service up to standards enjoyed in Europe and other many other areas.  Interest in commuter rail and subway products and services increases dramatically  as a result. Previously unknown companies, like Adaptive Engineering, which makes wheelchair lifts for trains, are swamped with orders as the handicapped begin to take advantage of dramatically increased mobility options.  Investment in mass transit fuels a explosion of employment in the field and a rapid professionalization of the work force as seasoned managers and workers migrate from oil-based organizations that are downsizing to the white hot mass transit sector.

2)     Backlog.  In this instance, everything is looking great for mass transit in theory, but the industrial system in the U.S., after 100 years of linkage to the automobile, is simply unable to shift gears to respond to the new transportation reality.  As with Amtrak’s Acela, the great initial excitement present when new services and equipment first came on line gives way to frustration and cynicism as nothing works as promised. Constant delays disrupt many economic sectors in the United States because of its long love affair with autos.  The customer always seems to come last, and “that’s tough” is the consistent public sector response.  Europe, China and Japan, where mass transit has been firmly established, are great beneficiaries of the transportation shift.  Hundreds of thousands get good jobs while the US flounders.  Non-US transit professionals are highly sought after and many buy Aston Martins to commute to second homes in remote locales on uncongested roads.

3)     False Alarm (Again!)  Even though there are many reasons to believe that mass transit will finally reach the tipping point and become established as a dominant transportation modality in the US, it doesn’t happen.  In spite of all the saber rattling around the Middle East and high ($4+/gallon) gas prices, the general conclusion of the American public is that the car on the highway is still the best option, offering maximum flexibility and comfort.  Behind-the-scenes deals keep the oil pumps working.  The major automobile manufacturers, which by 2013 are all owned by companies headquartered outside the U.S., continue to oppose huge investments in mass transit.   They have the support the labor unions representing their workers, causing the U.S. Congress to keep buses and trains out of the passing lane.

This application of the Structural Dynamics approach to the mass transit is not intended to be a comprehensive analysis of the topic.  It is a simplified example for illustration purposes.   It demonstrates how the method can be used to understand more about the present to develop insight and foresight about the future. 

The some of the relationships between the driving forces of any system are essentially permanent; the implacable physics of the world affect them.  Other relationships are dynamic;  the result of human choices, some seemingly small, that can have an enormous rippling effects throughout the system.  By comprehending the underlying structure of any situation, we can be more strategic in directing it toward the outcomes you prefer.

When results occur that are not desirable and not readily understood, what’s needed is not a redoubling of the same effort but a whole system perspective; a deeper understanding of the driving forces in play.  With that insight, it is possible to determine which interventions will produce the desired results. We are better able to see how our interventions are likely to play out.